DHIS2 Climate & Health work in Nepal builds off of and strengthens existing DHIS2 infrastructure and capacity, while incorporating innovative DHIS2 tools for climate data integration and predictive modeling.
Health information systems & capacity
In Nepal, DHIS2 has been used as the country’s national-scale health management information system (HMIS) since 2016. Nepal is also used for routine disease surveillance of priority diseases, including dengue. Health stakeholders in Nepal have achieved significant impact using DHIS2 for specific programmes, such as HIV. However, the system has also faced some challenges due to fragmentation as well as infrastructure and capacity limitations. In the climate and health project, the PHRC has primarily been working in a test instance of DHIS2 that pulls disease data from Nepal’s HMIS, where they have developed various climate-health information products for dengue surveillance. Following successful testing of their predictive modeling approach, PHRC plans to discuss implementation of these solutions in the HMIS with the Department of Health Services.
There is not currently an established local HISP group in Nepal. HISP India has provided DHIS2 technical assistance and capacity building support to the government of Nepal for several years, and has provided support as needed for the climate and health project in collaboration with the PHRC.
Climate data integration
The DHIS2 Climate App has been installed in the DHIS2 testing system, making ERA-5 reanalysis data and CHIRPS precipitation data available. Nepal partners have assessed these globally available re-analysis data sets as well as local datasets for use in climate-health programming. While Nepal has more than 40 years of rainfall and temperature from across the country (most of which is digitized), coverage is very low in mountain regions, and incomplete data continues to be a major concern for use of local data. Certain local geo-spatial datasets have already proven more useful in DHIS2 based on the higher resolution. The PHRC team continues to work on integrating these local data sets through DHIS2 Climate Tools, and is also planning to develop automated pipelines to ingest MODIS earth observation data and other non-climate data sets.
The Nepal team is actively following the development pathway for Open Climate Services Nepal (OCS). As part of this process, OCS Nepal instances have been successfully installed and configured, and the team has initiated the ingestion of global datasets to support subsequent system development, testing, and service deployment.
Predictive modeling
Nepal’s work on predictive modeling with DHIS2 is guided by the goal of developing a robust dengue predictive model and operationalizing it within the DHIS2 ecosystem to strengthen dengue surveillance and early warning in Nepal. Key questions this work explores include which factors are most significant in driving dengue outbreaks in Nepal, which data sets and models can produce the best predictions, what are the best ways to integrate local weather data in the absence of gridded data products, and how to address the issue of low numbers of data points in certain geographical areas (such as highland areas where dengue cases have historically not been routinely reported).
The PHRC team, with support from HISP India, has installed the Chap Modeling Platform and DHIS2 Modeling App on the DHIS2 climate testing instance. The WHO EWARS model has been successfully implemented and tested alongside other models, and several global data sets have been integrated to improve model performance, including ERA-5 Land, CHIRPS and MODIS. Next steps include integration of non-climate factors into the model and operationalization within DHIS2 in collaboration with stakeholders involved in disease surveillance and control programmes in the Government of Nepal.